There has rarely been a more urgent time to assess whether your money is being optimally managed. Market valuations are close to all-time highs while risk levels are high and long-term real return prospects are near zero. We anticipate re-runs of 2020 over the coming years, with more volatility and markets that ultimately go nowhere.
The ASX200 fell roughly 10% in the financial year just finished, which included a terrifying 35% plunge and euphoric 30% rally in a 16-week period. This loss-making white-knuckle ride is not what investors seek, and has left many on the sidelines feeling cautious and confused.
Dynamic Asset Portfolio Manager, Jerome Lander, discusses the risks of strategic asset allocation - particularly during the very difficult market conditions we face today. He argues that unless you're prepared to change the way you manage your client's money, there's really no way to manage that risk.
Equity markets have bounced well over 20% since the lows just over a month ago, so technically we are already in a new bull market.
With peak new cases now behind us, the economy agitating to reopen and governments starting to ease restrictions, is the massive fiscal and monetary stimulus in the pipes about to prove the bulls spectacularly right?
Let us examine what happens when the clear and present danger from the coronavirus meets the global asset bubble, your portfolio and the industry standard investment approach. This is no small issue because – contrary to a market consensus – the coronavirus (COVID-19) is actually a real threat to complacent equity markets and client portfolios. It is a global health pandemic which requires active management in the real world, and which should also be risk managed by your adviser or super fund. The coronavirus and its real-world management should not simply be dismissed as just another flu, and could even be the catalyst which bursts the global asset bubble.
Many portfolios traditionally use government bonds and cash to be defensive. With bond rates and cash rates now at historic lows, there is no longer much yield or return that one can expect from a long-term investment in these. Furthermore, the likelihood of losing money over time in real terms is now higher, given it now requires little inflation to overcome the mediocre expected return from historically low yields. Unfortunately, such a situation reflects lacklustre economies and is the end result of market returns being pulled forward by government intervention. Traditional defensive investments have simply become a tool of government policy as governments attempt to prolong an ‘artificial’ economic expansion.
By now, the situation is clear. Many economies are gradually slowing down or have already entered a recession (think European powerhouse “Germany”). A recession affecting even the ‘greatest’ economy of them all is probably right in front of us. As a result, how investors position their portfolios this coming quarter and in 2020 may be all that matters.
Jerome Lander is the Portfolio Manager at Dynamic Asset and one of Australia's leaders in the Goals Based Investing landscape.
Nearly 20 years after the last technology bubble, we’re in funny season again, and you don’t need to be an economics PhD to see it. Crazy valuations are being ascribed to stocks that have never made a dollar, in the hope they’ll become like Amazon one day. Think loss making stocks being priced on huge multiples of revenue implying that strong growth will continue for many many years in an otherwise low growth market. There is indeed a growing growth bubble in the ‘bubble in everything’.
The market environment has changed. Yet most advisers’ portfolios have not. They may want to adapt fast if they want their clients better suited to the new market environment - assuming they’re not going to unduly suffer more weak returns going forward as they did in 2018.
