While typically considered benign, passive index investing can come with unintended consequences.
While typically considered benign, passive index investing can come with unintended consequences.
During the last 30-40 year investment period, investors have been spoilt by an unusually favourable period for investments and asset prices. Following the high inflation and low growth period of the 1970s – when stocks and bonds did very poorly – inflation pressures finally subsided as did high interest rates. Furthermore, we had a massive period of peaceful prosperity and globalisation, enabling lower prices and greater economic efficiency. This created excellent conditions for most asset classes to flourish and with it growth orientated static Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) portfolios and low-cost index funds.
The idea that we should invest to meet our needs and goals is basic common sense. However, somewhat surprisingly, that is not what most players within the investment industry do.
The ASX200 fell roughly 10% in the financial year just finished, which included a terrifying 35% plunge and euphoric 30% rally in a 16-week period. This loss-making white-knuckle ride is not what investors seek, and has left many on the sidelines feeling cautious and confused.
Dynamic Asset Portfolio Manager, Jerome Lander, discusses the risks of strategic asset allocation - particularly during the very difficult market conditions we face today. He argues that unless you're prepared to change the way you manage your client's money, there's really no way to manage that risk.
Let us examine what happens when the clear and present danger from the coronavirus meets the global asset bubble, your portfolio and the industry standard investment approach. This is no small issue because – contrary to a market consensus – the coronavirus (COVID-19) is actually a real threat to complacent equity markets and client portfolios. It is a global health pandemic which requires active management in the real world, and which should also be risk managed by your adviser or super fund. The coronavirus and its real-world management should not simply be dismissed as just another flu, and could even be the catalyst which bursts the global asset bubble.
Most strategies in the market are too ‘cookie cutter’ and are not resilient enough to survive a downturn or an end of an investment cycle. What’s more, these strategies do not seem to adequately compensate the investor for the actual risk being taken. Are we really doing our best interest duty with the investment strategies that we are dispensing?
Looking at the current state of things, we have observed three investment ‘wrongs’ many financial planners are guilty of:
Many portfolios traditionally use government bonds and cash to be defensive. With bond rates and cash rates now at historic lows, there is no longer much yield or return that one can expect from a long-term investment in these. Furthermore, the likelihood of losing money over time in real terms is now higher, given it now requires little inflation to overcome the mediocre expected return from historically low yields. Unfortunately, such a situation reflects lacklustre economies and is the end result of market returns being pulled forward by government intervention. Traditional defensive investments have simply become a tool of government policy as governments attempt to prolong an ‘artificial’ economic expansion.
By now, the situation is clear. Many economies are gradually slowing down or have already entered a recession (think European powerhouse “Germany”). A recession affecting even the ‘greatest’ economy of them all is probably right in front of us. As a result, how investors position their portfolios this coming quarter and in 2020 may be all that matters.
Jerome Lander is the Portfolio Manager at Dynamic Asset and one of Australia's leaders in the Goals Based Investing landscape.
